Calm the hell down – here is the considered opinion!

End of Eurovision?

So I was writing a piece about how you all need to calm the fuck down and carry on, when, swipe me, friend to this site and the stars Lisa-Jayne Lewis writes it better than I could – Carry on there!

Ok y’all. first stop panicking!

Sit down, breathe slowly, have a glass of water and look beyond the headlines…

Change 1: No juries for the semifinal –

This is probably the most “dramatic” of today’s announcements. If you were asking me to speculate I would say this has come about because of the jury fraud that occurred in 2022 between 5 countries, probably lead by Azerbaijan, but that cannot be proved (Mr Phil says yeah, I have suspected that too!) – however what was proven was that dodgy dealings had gone on and something needed to be done about it.

The jury composition has been a bit off for a while so something needed to be done (Mr Phil has been advocating to go back to 8 or 16) and by taking the juries out all together you take out the ability for that sort of corruption to happen. It doesn’t negate all corruption as we know that televote, sim cards and oversees ‘voting farms’ can be bought (and have been in the past) but it does knock out one line of potential voting fraud.

I do feel though that we are basically in a situation where some of the kids have ruined it for everyone and the teacher has taken the toys away!

What this means for the content of the show is now a matter of speculation. Many are saying it will go back to the 00’s period when, lets face it, the Contest to all intents and purposes was a bit crap. Yes there are some great songs in that era but there was also quite a bit of trashy pop filler which many think will surge over the contest as broadcasters try to second guess the voting viewers of Europe (and beyond – we’ll come to that in a minute!) however if we look at the kind of songs that have been garnering viewer votes in recent years the schlager count is very low.

Let’s remove 2022 and analyse the televote top 3’s 2015-2021 we see that there are really only 4-5 songs out of 18 that fit into that category, televote tastes have very much moved on since the 00’s, so this may be an unfounded concern.

It could have some effect on who scraped through SFs to GF in 9th or 10th, and who misses out, but it is not going to determine that much higher up the table.

Basically the world is not ending, smart broadcasters will know how to play the game.

Change 2: Rest of the World Vote

Now this isn’t quite the HUGE change that a lot of people seem to think it is. It alters the balance ever so slightly to give the televote a little bit more power than the juries (Mr Phil says 50.66% Televote to 49.33% Jury this year) but realistically only by 12 points.

The speculation that viewers in Latin America will all vote on-mass for Spain (an example I have already seen quite a lot today) is pretty unfounded. Even if this were the case and there were very few votes from anywhere else in the world this would only add a total of 12 points to Spain’s overall televote score and when we combine that with points awarded from the jury (there will still be juries for the final) and pop it into the entire mix of televote points available it becomes almost insignificant.

Let’s look at the numbers;

In a contest with 40 countries (‘cos that’s a round number and easier to do maths with!) the maximum score a country can receive under the old system would have been 936 (24×39) if they were to have received 12’s from every jury and every televote (this has never happened, even for Ukraine in 2022 who scored 631/936). Adding in a televote from ROW that brings the total max score up to 948, were this new system in place in 2022 and Ukraine had got 12 from the ROW vote it would have finished with 643/948 and even if 2nd placed televote Moldova got 10 from ROW it wouldn’t have made a single difference, nor would it if the UK had received the 10 points, all it would have done would be to reduce the points difference by 10 and see the UK finish in 2nd place with 476 instead of 466.

I realise 2022 is an awkward year to do this kind of number crunching because of the obvious, but a quick look at the numbers over history shows the closest contest it would have had any bearing on is 2021 and Italy would still have won.

So before you panic and think that somehow America or China is going to start deciding the outcome of the Eurovision Song Contest from now on, that is not going to happen, the maths simply doesn’t allow it. (Mr Phil – That and its ONE extra set of votes worth 1/75th of the total this year).

If we do get to a situation where one extra set of points from the ROW televote does determine the winner then you can bet your bottom dollar that will be have one hell of a contest for it to be that close when all the points come in!!

Personally I think this is a good move. Eurovision has millions of viewers all around the world who love the show and will welcome being able to cast their vote even if the reality is that it makes very little difference. If it increases engagement in the show and the brand as a whole then it’s sure a welcome addition to Eurovision’s growing global audience outside of the participating countries.

So there is my nerdy take on today’s news. Stay calm people, stay calm, all is well!!

Love, peace, joiks, fuegos, spacemen and pink hats to you all!! (Don’t do that again please)

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1 year ago

I have just read this and I have to say it makes everything a bit more interesting.

In the past years we always tried to find out the jurries bait and the televoters bait. In. This year you will have to have a song that is enough televoters bait for the semi’s but also enough jurries bait if you manage to get to the final.
Leaning on formula may not be enough.
I think the punters will have a much harder to predict season than before. Data from previous years will it be as useful as before. It will be interesting to see how this develop.

I bad in mathematics or statistics so I don’t really understand why you think this will slightly alter the ballance between jurries and televoters score in the final.
If I understand correctly, the televoters from all voting countries go to 1 pot. A song get percentage of the votes and this translate to number of points.
A song get 4% of the votes and this translate to 4% of the points.
This change may have the effect that some songs get more precentage of the votes and other songs get less. The number of points awarded will not change . Some change in the outcome may occurred, hut we will.onlu that at the end of the contest

1 year ago
Reply to  Shai

I will answer my own question.
EBU statement is not really clear if they keep the 50/50 votes or not.

We have 37 countries participating and they can award a total of 2146 points. We have 38 televoters countries but it is not clear if they will award atotal of 2146 points or more.
There are 2 scenario’s.
1. The amount of points the televoters can award is 2146, the same as the jurries. In this scenario the 50/50 votes remains and the votes of the ROTW may have influence of the precentage and amount of points the song receive from the televoters.

2. The ROTW points will be add as extra points. The televoters will award a total of 2204 points, which means, as you said in the article, that this will slightly alter the ballance between jurries and televoters. No more 50/50 votes but a slight advantage for the televoters.

From what I read from the EBU statement, I can’t really figure out what they are going to do.