Not sure I’ll find time to do this for semi 2 as well, but let’s get my thoughts in some sort of order.
POTENTIAL WINNERS
Realistically, I think only Estonia and Russia have genuine chances from what we’ve seen so far. Both seem reasonably drawproof, but I do wonder if the organisers would seize a chance to say “Wouldn’t Russia be a great show opener?” if they got the opportunity.
POTENTIAL TOP 10
Finland, Hungary and Romania all have extremely decent chances here, and if they catch a prevailing wind on the night they could go further. Do note that Finland could go the other way and do no business whatsoever though – it’s very much an unknown quantity, and I’m backing my hunch that jurors and viewers alike will find it sympathetic rather than nasty.
POTENTIAL TOP 20
Belgium, Greece, Georgia look like they’re in this kind of bracket. Probably all nearer 10th than 20th.
SCRAPING THROUGH
Armenia, FYR Macedonia, Serbia, Denmark, Albania are all of a muchness, in looking for the last two qualifiers. I’d say Armenia and Serbia seem to have the strongest complete packages, but the grand final could be cruel. Denmark and Macedonia aren’t a long way clear of the bottom three…
IN TROUBLE
That leaves Moldova (absolutely a televoting song in a dreadful televoting running order), Netherlands (who will need to do wonders with the final staging to rescue it from here) and Belarus (dully competent but stuck in a dreadful memory hole just before Russia) swimming against the tide. At this stage I wouldn’t expect or want to see any of them still around for the big show.