The game is on. Rehearsals are underway for the 2023 Eurovision Song Contest at the M&S Bank Arena in Liverpool. Organisers have limited what we see before the show, though they have released photographs and TikTok clips. The delegations themselves have released additional footage.
So, in the absence of performance footage – although that’s coming very soon – let’s use data and trends to predict this year’s winning song.
Past Winners and the Influence of Language
Analysing the past winners of the Eurovision Song Contest reveals interesting patterns. A ‘free language’ rule was introduced in 1999. Before that, participating countries were generally required to perform their entries in one of their national languages. Since the implementation of the free language rule, countries have been allowed to perform their songs in any language they choose, leading to a significant increase in the number of entries performed in English.
Sixteen out of the last 20 winning acts were performed in English. This suggests that acts performing in English may have an advantage in mass appeal and potential for victory.
The Power of Pop
Another factor to consider when predicting the winner is the music genre. Historically, pop music has dominated the Eurovision Song Contest, with many winning entries falling within this category.
The genres of the most recent Eurovision winners include alternative rock, pop ballads, electronic pop, jazz-influenced ballads, and a blend of traditional and contemporary music styles. Although pop music remains dominant, these winners demonstrate the contest’s increasing diversity and openness to various musical genres.
A catchy, upbeat pop song with a memorable hook and an engaging performance will likely resonate with both jurors and the viewing public, increasing the chances of victory.
The Role of Staging and Visuals
The Eurovision Song Contest has evolved into a visual spectacle, with elaborate staging, lighting, and special effects playing an increasingly important role in capturing viewers’ attention. Entries that successfully integrate stunning visuals and innovative staging concepts with their musical performance tend to fare well. The 2018 winner, Netta from Israel, wowed audiences with her quirky performance and unique visuals, propelling her to victory.
The Impact of Social Media and Virality
In the age of social media, the potential for a Eurovision act to go viral can significantly impact its chances of winning. Acts that generate online buzz and garner a large following on social media platforms often benefit from increased visibility and public support. Memorable or unique performances that inspire audience engagement and shares can translate into more votes, improving an act’s overall chances of success.
While the Eurovision Song Contest is primarily a celebration of music, it is impossible to ignore the role that geopolitics can play in voting patterns. Acts from countries with strong neighbourly ties or a large diaspora may receive more votes from certain nations. However, these factors can be unpredictable and do not always guarantee success.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine threw focus on a stunningly emotional performance of ‘Stefania’ by Kalush in Milan and may bring similar attention to TVORCHI.
So, who’s going to win?
Predicting the winner of the Eurovision Song Contest is never an easy task, as the competition is often full of surprises. However, we can predict which act might come out on top by considering factors such as language, genre, staging, social media engagement, and geopolitical influences.
Based on recent data and trends, our prediction for this year’s winner is an act that performs an English-language pop song, features captivating visuals and staging, and successfully generates social media buzz.
Did you expect us to be like that Crystal Ball site – they probably already know anyway.