They’ve gone to a party so I don’t have to!

Up at the opera house, hosted by the Georgian ambassador in honour of the country’s independence day. There will no doubt be lots of elegant and delightful people there, holding trays of drinks and nibbles and offering them to the guests.

Not my thing. I’m a homeboy, me, so I’m indulging a rare opportunity to have a quiet night in at the apartment On My Own and chill out with a Fanta and some bread and cheese. It also gives me a chance to catch up with the big news from home: Puppy Gets Head Stuck In Pool Table.

I live only a couple of miles from that pool table, which is just one of the reasons why I feel like a fish out of water when the Georgian Ambassador summons me to the Oslo Opera House (not that he actually did – just all the others – an oversight, clearly!)

It also gives me a chance to work out what’s winning this contest thingy wot we’re all at, and it’s getting clearer and clearer that any of them could and none of them actually will. I’m still strongly drawn to Turkey, and interested to see their final rehearsal tomorrow and find out how it’s cooking.

I can make a case for Norway or Ireland, but I think they’ll get under each others’ feet when it comes to choosing which one to vote for. Belgium and Sweden, same problem. Slovenia and Finland… different problem! N’Evergreen and Chanee have been poor rehearsers, but for all we know they’re just poor rehearsers – the magic might only start when it matters.

The big guns – Germany and Azerbaijan? I can see why for both of them – Germany’s the young, cheeky-grinned, charismatic, bit of a Rybak; Safura‘s more of a Bilan, all whipped up PR campaign and over the top stagery where you have to strip it all away, listen with ears rather than eyes, and really look for the winning song. And it’s in there somewhere, under a pile of extraneous matter.

But the thing is, no-one seems to want to commit around here. And they’re right. There are little overlooked pearls tucked away in quiet corners of the semifinals. Sneak Estonia or Moldova into the final, give ’em a late draw after two or three songs that strongly contrast with them, and they’re going to look totally different and dangerous in their new context. Put Turkey on first, and yes, it’d be a great opener but it’d take damage.

Late on Thursday night, early on Friday morning, we’ll finally get to hear the final contest playlist. And it’ll tell us everything. Running the final 25 through, back to back, in the correct order something is going to just suddenly sound RIGHT. And I’ve a funny feeling that the identity of that something is going to surprise us all.

It’s like in 2008; for two months, Pe-o Margine Di Luna is in everyone’s heads as a late running order song, and it’s plainly dangerous there. Then, all of a sudden, it’s the contest opener and it disappears. Or 2007 with Voda, and Elitsa and Stoyan – it’s good but a little innocuous at the start, it moves to near the end for the final and BANG! – it suddenly stands out and makes sense.

That’s a very long way of saying “We’re nearly finished with open rehearsals, and I’m no nearer to picking a winner now than I was when I arrived here”. Give me a week or so – maybe a little longer – and I’ll have some clearer ideas for you!