I’m trying to fit two gallons of good into a pint glass here. I think there’s 7 that I’m prepared to rule out, some of which will be rather controversial…
POLAND, NORWAY, ALBANIA – the only thing these three have in common is that they’ve got a mighty tough draw disadvantage to overcome, and I don’t think any of them have the right song or the right friends present to help them do it.
MALTA, CROATIA – don’t think either of these is quite as bad as collective wisdom suggests, but neither looks right for making it into the top 10 of a tough year.
SAN MARINO – competent song, competently sung by a competent singer, nuff said.
ICELAND – it breaks my heart to rule this out, but there are various reasons for it not to.
That leaves me 12 possibles. In draw order:
ARMENIA – cheap, cheesy, a silly but effective staging, and those are POSITIVE attributes.
TURKEY – because it’s Turkey, and their rockish songs usually do well enough.
SERBIA – good song, feel-good, should be through no problems at all.
RUSSIA – ought to be top 3 in the semi, it’s still in the running to win the whole thing.
SWITZERLAND – finally a Swiss entry that actually gains some traction on an ESC stage.
GEORGIA – it’s not great, but it’s not THAT bad, and it could be the spoiler for Turkey.
FINLAND – if he can broadcast an innocent charm to Europe it could do a Dice.
HUNGARY – Kati’s not getting the best out of the song, but the song’s too good for that to matter.
PORTUGAL – comedy either dies horribly or ignites. Still not sure which way this one’s going to go.
LITHUANIA – not a great song, but a pure contrast to what precedes it in Ha Dias Assim stylee.
AZERBAIJAN – surely a no-brainer.
GREECE – Stereo Mike fails to kill it, and the draw and staging are outstanding.
It’s going to need some more thought and angst before I squeeze a final 10 out from that lot, though I’m sure some of you will be thinking that it’s a no-brainer to remove some or all of Portugal/Georgia/Switzerland and/or Lithuania from the candidate list or that I’ve got it just plain wrong about some of my 7 rule-outs. It’s a tough call!