Flushed with success at correctly naming more than the theoretical minimum 4 qualifiers on Tuesday (and after the live performances, Iceland rather than Estonia was SOOOOOO obvious), I’m going to parlay it up with a minimum 5 for tonight. Just to confuse me, I’m listening to semi 1 while I’m doing this. What can go wrong?
I have exactly the opposite problem with semi 2 that I had with semi 1. I want 13 of them to qualify. I’m not fussed about Ireland and Slovenia, but even they would find an audience on Saturday in a way that (say) San Marino might struggle to.
To confuse me further, I’m a draw hawk. Always have been, always will be. Going in the first few hurts your chances. Unfortunately, the first few tonight are very much the awesome.
I’ve already mentioned Ireland and Slovenia, and I think they’re in trouble. Not because they’re bad, but because they’re meh. Yeah, whatever, very nice, next please.
Most pundits are convinced that Georgia is a definite non-qualifier too. I don’t agree with them. If the pros thought “I have no idea what that even was, but it was an interesting composition, Mariko sung beautifully and the parachute was imaginative and appropriate” then that’s most of the boxes ticked. If 1 in 10 televoters can’t remember the early 70s in spite of having been present for them then we’re at the races. It’s far from my most definite pick, but for me it’s the standout of the year and mentioning it first is a blatant piece of comment whoring. We need the hits!
I see no reason why Malta, Israel and Norway won’t all make it through as well. That’s your three strongest songs of the semi right there, at the top of the batting order.
That makes me a bit fretful for Poland. Saturday night needs it, but given that everyone produced their a-game last night, if there’s one song that the juries are going to have punished, Poland’s the one.
Austria’s a funny one, and I’m going to leave Conchita until last. Suffice to say that the pluses and the minuses are both loud and clear.
On Tuesday, I said that Belgium were going through because everybody kept telling me that they were. They were wrong. Tonight, most people are convinced that Lithuania are going home and I’m going to follow their lead on that as well, because I’m a slow learner.
They also tell me that Finland look ace and authentic and bandish and nothing whatsoever like Lovebugs or SinPlus oh dear me no. Hmmm. Alright then.
Belarus are another qualifier, in my book. Unlikely though it seemed on a Monday night in midwinter when my social network told me that they’d picked a ridiculous song about yummy cheesecake, it’s brushed up right well and looks right and sounds good.
I’ll leave FYR Macedonia to last, too.
Switzerland are going through too, because it’s insanely catchy. I still don’t know what it’s about and I can’t make out three quarters of what he’s on about, but it’s ace.
Nobody ever went broke backing Greece and Romania to qualify, and they won’t go broke this year either. The press centre keeps telling me that Romania’s propfest is more hindrance than harm, and the missing chorus still hurts, but it’s Paula! And the other fella. Greece are very, very obviously through as well, with a rider – if there’s a song outside of Poland that isn’t jury bait in this semi, Greece has it. Winning the televote however, as I suspect it will, leaves it safe as houses.
This leaves me with an Austria/FYR Macedonia conundrum to resolve. And I’m going to get myself in trouble whichever way I jump. If I had any common sense at all, I’d resolve it by sacrificing Georgia, but common sense? Me? Nah…
I think we’re losing Austria tonight. I do. I’ve learned tolerance, I respect that if you want to be a lady with a beard you can do that – it certainly never did Linda Martin any harm – but I just do not rate the song all that highly. I think it has a flat old plodder of a chorus that drains all life out of the surrounding area.
And that leaves FYR Macedonia in the final. I like the song, and I think Tijana has enough experience and charisma to sell it where it matters.
That’ll be my 10 then. Malta, Israel, Norway, Georgia, Finland, Belarus, FYR Macedonia, Switzerland, Greece, Romania to the final. Point and laugh (louder than usual!) in the comments!
Big call there Nick on Austria.
I think it will qualify but I think it may not do as well as people think it will. It’s interesting about the stereotyping that has gone on about this song or the performer which is that Western Europe will vote for it and Eastern Europe wont. I think life is not that black and white. I can see many people in Western Europe who even if they are tolerant will still find a bearded guy in a long flowing dress singing a Shirley Bassey, James Bond-like song a bit too much to vote for. And no doubt it will find votes in Eastern Europe as well because the entire east of the continent is not one monolithic block.
The other question I have about Austria is the postcard. The presentation of the song goes out of its way to wait untli the song is well underway before the “reveal” of who is singing but surely that “reveal” will have been given away a minute earlier by the postcard. So does this big moment mean anything in the context of people’s knowledge of the singer.
“if you want to be a lady with a beard you can do that – it certainly never did Linda Martin any harm ”
Most probably THE comment of the season so far!
“if you want to be a lady with a beard you can do that – it certainly never did Linda Martin any harm ”
You odious little man!
Comedy gold.
I am going out on a limb to say Austria wont do as well as some people think. Of course she was going to qualify. I am sure that the more serious juries wont rate this overly. People are all in a lather over Austria and saying that San Marino wont do well. Am I the only person who thinks that the two songs are similar? They are both James Bond theme songs. If Conchita was singing “maybe” people would still be all in a lather. I don’t think we will be going to Vienna next year. Sorry.